Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

No one knows exactly how much computer crime there is, though FLETC’s experts agree the damage starts in the billions of dollars and will surely surge upward. The size and scope of cybercrimes are limited only by the bad guys’ imaginations, technical skill and gall … Crimes that worry authorities most [are] white-collar crime … theft … stolen services … smuggling … terrorism … child pornography.

Predictor: Sussman, Vic

Prediction, in context:

The 1994 book “The Information Revolution,” edited by Donald Altschiller, carries a reprint of the Jan. 23, 1995, U.S. News & World Report article “Policing Cyberspace” by Vince Sussman. Sussman explores First Amendment rights in cyberspace. He writes: ”No one knows exactly how much computer crime there is, though FLETC’s experts agree the damage starts in the billions of dollars and will surely surge upward. The size and scope of cybercrimes are limited only by the bad guys’ imaginations, technical skill and gall. But here are the crimes that worry authorities the most: ”- White-collar crime. Virtually every white-collar crime has a computer or telecommunications link … The FBI says that Kevin Mitnick, currently America’s most wanted computer criminal, has stolen software from cellular-phone companies, caused millions of dollars in damage to computer operations and boldly taped FBI agents’ calls. ”- Theft. Given the expanse of computer networks, even seemingly small crimes can have big payoffs. ‘Salami slicing,’ for example, involves a thief who regularly makes electronic transfers of small change from thousands of accounts to his own … A more targeted approach involves pilfering industrial secrets. Last November [1994], someone infiltrated Internet-links computers owned by General Electric and stole research materials and passwords. ”- Stolen services. Swiping and reselling long-distance calling codes is a big business, says Bob Gibbs, a Financial Fraud Institute senior instructor, as is breaking into private phone networks and selling long-distance access… ”- Smuggling. Drug dealers launder their proceeds through cyberspace and use the Internet to relay messages… ”- Terrorism: Since computers are the nerve centers of the world’s financial transactions and communications systems, there are any number of nightmarish possibilities. Authorities especially worry that a cracker – cyberspeak for a malevolent hacker – might penetrate FedWire, the Federal Reserve’s electronic funds transfer system, or vital telephone switching stations… ”- Child Pornography. There is a lot of it out there.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Crime/Fraud/Terrorism

Name of publication: The Information Revolution (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: Policing Cyberspace

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 110, 111

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne