The new media, while continuing to weaken the political parties, could nevertheless greatly diminish the utility of candidate self-promotion. The reasoning is that voters in the future will increasingly get their political information from … impartial information agents, not from the candidates directly. If that turns out to be the case, then not only will traditional candidate self-promotion become obsolete, but so will the power of lobbyists and special interests who derive their power from their ability to fund candidates’ media campaigns. A candidate could spend huge sums taking out television ads, but it would do no good if the voter has come to rely on agents for political information.
Predictor: Snider, James
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “The Information Revolution,” edited by Donald Altschiller, carries a reprint of the 1994, The Futurist article “Democracy On-line” by James H. Snider. Snider speculates on the electronic town meeting, a possibility in the near future. He writes: ”New media could lead to some important qualitative changes in politics. In the past, the growing influence of mass media in the political process has led candidates to rely increasingly on media-based self-promotion (as opposed to the political parties) to get themselves elected. The new media, while continuing to weaken the political parties, could nevertheless greatly diminish the utility of candidate self-promotion. The reasoning is that voters in the future will increasingly get their political information from the impartial information agents, not from the candidates directly. If that turns out to be the case, then not only will traditional candidate self-promotion become obsolete, but so will the power of lobbyists and special interests who derive their power from their ability to fund candidates’ media campaigns. A candidate could spend huge sums taking out television ads, but it would do no good if the voter has come to rely on agents for political information.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Campaigns/Voting
Name of publication: The Information Revolution (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Democracy On-line
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 188, 189
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne