Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Under current U.S. law, the government is authorized to intercept the wire, electronic, or oral communications of a criminal subject by obtaining a special court order which has been designed by Congress and approved by the Supreme Court … The ability of law enforcement to draw on this investigative tool is now at risk. Methods that have been used to intercept analogue voice communications carried over copper wires do not work with many of the new digital-based technologies and services such as ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network), fiber optic transmissions, and the increasing number of mobile telecommunications networks and architectures.

Predictor: Denning, Dorothy

Prediction, in context:

The 1997 book “Computers, Ethics, and Society,” edited by M. David Ermann, Mary B. Williams and Michele S. Shauf, carries a reprint of the 1993 Communications of the ACM article “Digital Communications Must Not Weaken Law Enforcement” by Dorothy Denning. Denning argues that digital communications should be designed to allow tapping by the FBI. She writes: ”Under current U.S. law, the government is authorized to intercept the wire, electronic, or oral communications of a criminal subject by obtaining a special court order which has been designed by Congress and approved by the Supreme Court … The ability of law enforcement to draw on this investigative tool is now at risk. Methods that have been used to intercept analogue voice communications carried over copper wires do not work with many of the new digital-based technologies and services such as ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network), fiber optic transmissions, and the increasing number of mobile telecommunications networks and architectures … To address these problems, the Department of Justice is seeking digital telephony legislation to require the service providers and operators to meet their statutory assistance requirements by maintaining the capability to intercept particular communications, permitting law enforcement to perform its monitoring function at a remote government monitoring facility in real time. The proposed legislation has stimulated a lively debate. Much of the debate has focused on concerns that the proposal, if enacted, could hold back technology, jeopardize security and privacy, make U.S. products noncompetitive, burden the country with unjustifiable and unnecessary costs, and ultimately fail to meet the stated objectives if criminals encrypt their communications.”

Biography:

Dorothy Denning was a professor and chair of Computer Science at Georgetown University in the 1990s, by which time she had been in the field of computer security and cryptography for two decades. Previous to her arrival at GU, she worked at Digital Equipment Corporation, SRI International and Purdue University. Her books include “Cryptography and Data Security” and “Information Warfare and Security.” She authored many Internet research studies. She was the first president of the International Association for Cryptologic Research. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1993

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Privacy/Surveillance

Name of publication: Computers, Ethics, and Society (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: Digital Communication Must Not Weaken Law Enforcement

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 247, 248

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne