These new capabilities can evolve in either of two directions. They can provide the broadband access to the “last mile” – the connection to the home – thus extending the Internet vision to broadband access to anyone with a TV set. Or they can see the vision of a better informed, more efficient and democratic society overtaken by saturation of viewer attention by access to home shopping and a choice among 10,000 movies.
Predictor: Branscomb, Lewis M.
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Balancing the Commercial and Public-Interest Visions of the NII” by Lewis Branscomb, director of the Program on Science, Technology and Public Policy at Harvard University and principal investigator of the Information Infrastructure Project. Branscomb writes: ”New means for home access to video-on-demand – direct-broadcast satellite, interactive TV, compressed video on telephone cable, CD-ROM diskettes – seem likely to expand dramatically access to home-shopping and TV movies. Billions of dollars of capital are being invested in the new business combinations to exploit this consumer information market; the dollars completely swamp the modest investments being made in bringing public services to citizens and public institutions. This revolution in telecommunications regulatory policy stems from the Modified Final Judgment in the ATT antitrust case. There are new technological possibilities for disseminating video over the twisted-pair lines that bring phone service into the home, the possibility of interactive service on cable TV channels, including voice service, and emerging digital wireless services providing bypass into the home as well as mobile services. These new capabilities can evolve in either of two directions. They can provide the broadband access to the ‘last mile’ – the connection to the home – thus extending the Internet vision to broadband access to anyone with a TV set. Or they can see the vision of a better informed, more efficient and democratic society overtaken by saturation of viewer attention by access to home shopping and a choice among 10,000 movies.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Balancing the Commercial and Public-Interest Visions of the NII
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 27
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne