[In the Internet’s next phase,] the end user may have sufficient processing power and memory capability, as well as communications access capabilities, to be a host. In addition, we anticipate that there will be a further migration to the point where there are multiple hosts per end user, rather than the prior paradigm of multiple users per host. This challenge will dramatically stress the Internet in directions not seen previously … Current protocols focus on data transactions, with some innovations allowing images and limited multimedia, namely voice and video. The future challenge will be the development of new and innovate protocols to allow new-user access to grow while enriching the capability of the information transferred.
Predictor: McGarty, Terrence P.
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Internet Architectural and Policy Implications for Migration from High-End User to the ‘New User'” by Terrence P. McGarty and Carole Haywood. McGarty is chairman and CEO of The Telemarc Group, Inc. and Haywood is with RAM Mobile Data Inc. They write: ”[In its next evolution,] the network moves into a gigabit-per-second backbone, allowing for the first time, real-time access to such applications as multimedia processing, video, and supercomputer networking. The protocols for access allow expansive addressing and accessibility. End-users access costs are reduced by access-cost enablement/control policies and the introduction of 64 Kbps end-user transport access to all terminals. Host identity is now made consistent with user identity. Specifically, in this phase, the end user may have sufficient processing power and memory capability, as well as communications access capabilities, to be a host. In addition, we anticipate that there will be a further migration to the point where there are multiple hosts per end user, rather than the prior paradigm of multiple users per host. This challenge will dramatically stress the Internet in directions not seen previously … Current protocols focus on data transactions, with some innovations allowing images and limited multimedia, namely voice and video. The future challenge will be the development of new and innovate protocols to allow new-user access to grow while enriching the capability of the information transferred.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Architectural and Policy Implications for Migration from High-End User to the ‘New User’
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 237, 238
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne