A future communications and processing issue that will define the architecture is whether dark fiber – the provision of access from a host to fiber with no telephone company intermediary switching – will become a viable commercial option. Dark fiber could allow intelligent hosts to control the communications processing in a highly distributed fashion using intelligent high-layer protocols. This exemplifies the concept of intelligence at the periphery of the network, namely at the host. This concept states that communications should be minimalist in form: that is, communications providers should do nothing that limits the creativity of the processing hosts’ intelligence and capabilities … Until dark fiber becomes an available commodity, switching will remain a centrally provided host service.
Predictor: McGarty, Terrence P.
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Internet Architectural and Policy Implications for Migration from High-End User to the ‘New User'” by Terrence P. McGarty and Carole Haywood. McGarty is chairman and CEO of The Telemarc Group, Inc. and Haywood is with RAM Mobile Data Inc. They write: ”A future communications and processing issue that will define the architecture is whether dark fiber – the provision of access from a host to fiber with no telephone company intermediary switching – will become a viable commercial option. Dark fiber could allow intelligent hosts to control the communications processing in a highly distributed fashion using intelligent high-layer protocols. This exemplifies the concept of intelligence at the periphery of the network, namely at the host. This concept states that communications should be minimalist in form: that is, communications providers should do nothing that limits the creativity of the processing hosts’ intelligence and capabilities … Until dark fiber becomes an available commodity, switching will remain a centrally provided host service.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Architectural and Policy Implications for Migration from High-End User to the ‘New User’
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 244, 245
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne