The prediction, in brief:

Impressive gains in manufacturing productivity, brought about through process-efficiency improvements using information technologies, have not created equivalent employment opportunities. There will be no new jobs in warehouses where just-in-time inventory systems have eliminated the need for them. The same effect is about to roll through the reinvention of government, as automated delivery systems eliminate hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country. Finally, if one assumes that the younger generations tend to be literate in the use of computers and information technologies, the dramatic loss of real income in this population group over the past 10 years is particularly disturbing.

Predictor: Civille, Richard

Prediction, in context:

The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “The Internet and the Poor” by Richard Civille, executive director of the Center for Civic Networking, a non-profit organization dedicated to the application of information infrastructure to community and economic development. He writes:”Impressive gains in manufacturing productivity, brought about through process-efficiency improvements using information technologies, have not created equivalent employment opportunities. There will be no new jobs in warehouses where just-in-time inventory systems have eliminated the need for them. The same effect is about to roll through the reinvention of government, as automated delivery systems eliminate hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country. Finally, if one assumes that the younger generations tend to be literate in the use of computers and information technologies, the dramatic loss of real income in this population group over the past 10 years is particularly disturbing.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: Employment

Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: The Internet and the Poor

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 177

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne