Every month, something newer and weirder happens, and the Internet seems to be substantially different every three months … Many worry that “big business” – providers or users – will destroy the Internet. I’m not worried; I believe there’s always room for research, educational, hobbyist and hacker communities. And, frankly the essential technology is readily available to anyone who wants to buy it, as the growth of shoestring providers demonstrates; if the Internet no longer provides an adequate home, I would expect that a core of network users could and would create Internet II within 48 hours. Indeed, that’s what a lot of what we have today is; a virtual network within the Internet, owned and operated by the Internet community. Much of what businesses are doing today leverages these efforts, making the Internet in some ways a trickle-up enterprise.
Predictor: Dern, Daniel
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Meeting the Challenges of Business and End-User Communities on the Internet: What They Want, What they Need, What They’re Doing” by Daniel Dern, an Internet analyst and the author of “The Internet Guide for New Users” and “The Internet Business Handbook.” He writes: ”Every month, something newer and weirder happens, and the Internet seems to be substantially different every three months … Many worry that ‘big business’ – providers or users – will destroy the Internet. I’m not worried; I believe there’s always room for research, educational, hobbyist and hacker communities. And, frankly the essential technology is readily available to anyone who wants to buy it, as the growth of shoestring providers demonstrates; if the Internet no longer provides an adequate home, I would expect that a core of network users could and would create Internet II within 48 hours. Indeed, that’s what a lot of what we have today is; a virtual network within the Internet, owned and operated by the Internet community. Much of what businesses are doing today leverages these efforts, making the Internet in some ways a trickle-up enterprise … As the services and populations available on the Internet expand, the use of the Internet’s original core communities – R&E, government agencies, vendors, computer users – is also expanding. They, too, want to use business-type services, provide information to new communities, publish via World Wide Web and Gopher and FTP. They, too, want what individual users and businesses want; the capabilities that individuals and businesses get serve the ‘old Internet communities’ as well. So everyone wins. The challenge will be, can the Internet survive success?”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Meeting the Challenges of Business and End-User Communities on the Internet: What They Want, What they Need, What They’re Doing
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 220, 221
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne