Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

To respond to the increased demand for Internet service among small and individual users, a number of new access models have arisen … The FreeNet model … has been implemented successfully in about 20 communities in the United States… Each FreeNet provides free dial-up e-mail service and access to a variety of local and national information, through voluntary labor and donated equipment and operating funds. The FreeNet model demonstrates the low cost at which BBS-type access can be provided … Like many aspects of the Internet, however, it is unclear how it will hold up in the future. Volunteer and philanthropic support may not be able to meet increases in demand. Also, in some cases commercial Internet service providers have been unwilling to allow customers to use their connections as access points for FreeNets, perceiving them as threats to the market for fee-based services.

Predictor: Keller, James

Prediction, in context:

The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Public Access Issues: An Introduction” by Keller, a research associate and coordinator of the Information Infrastruture Project at Harvard University. He writes: ”The technology is and has been available to establish an Internet host over an ordinary dial-up phone line, but this type of connectivity is not widely available, and when it is typically costs over $100 per month. To respond to the increased demand for Internet service among small and individual users, a number of new access models have arisen … The FreeNet model … has been implemented successfully in about 20 communities in the United States… Each FreeNet provides free dial-up e-mail service and access to a variety of local and national information, through voluntary labor and donated equipment and operating funds. The FreeNet model demonstrates the low cost at which BBS-type access can be provided … Like many aspects of the Internet, however, it is unclear how it will hold up in the future. Volunteer and philanthropic support may not be able to meet increases in demand. Also, in some cases commercial Internet service providers have been unwilling to allow customers to use their connections as access points for FreeNets, perceiving them as threats to the market for fee-based services.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Internet Service Providers

Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: Public Access Issues: An Introduction

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 43, 44

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne