While an estimated third of American homes have a computer, only about 3 percent are regularly online. In fact, as a result of price increases caused by deregulation, a growing number of Americans – up to 20 percent of some low-income communities – don’t even have home telephones. Even if the “NII access device” of the future is built into TV sets, cable set-top boxes, video game controllers, or other “everyday” devices, and even if they eventually drop in price, it will be a long time before the entire population will be able to afford them – if ever. In addition, no matter how friendly computers get, they will still require some level of skill and expertise … Social transformation requires social participation, and a totally market-driven NII is not likely to achieve it.
Predictor: Miller, Steven E.
Prediction, in context:The August 1994 issue of The Network Observer, an online newsletter, carries an article titled “Building the NII from the Bottom Up: A Strategy for Working Through Local Organizations” by Steven E. Miller of the Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility national board. Miller writes:”These visions fail because they won’t lead to the achievement of universal service in a meaningful way. While an estimated third of American homes have a computer, only about 3 percent are regularly online. In fact, as a result of price increases caused by deregulation, a growing number of Americans – up to 20 percent of some low-income communities – don’t even have home telephones. Even if the ‘NII access device’ of the future is built into TV sets, cable set-top boxes, video game controllers, or other ‘everyday’ devices, and even if they eventually drop in price, it will be a long time before the entire population will be able to afford them – if ever. In addition, no matter how friendly computers get, they will still require some level of skill and expertise. In a nation which has a 40 percent high school drop out rate, a 20 percent adult illiteracy rate, a permanently unemployed underclass, and a segmented labor market that tracks a significant proportion of the working population into dead-end, unskilled, and short-term jobs – it is likely that many people will never get taught the skills needed to do more than the most basic types of (probably consumption-oriented) activities. Social transformation requires social participation, and a totally market-driven NII is not likely to achieve it. Second, these visions fail because they are too focused on individuals … Societal power … overwhelmingly operates through institutions. Individual empowerment can lead to upward mobility. But the ‘trickling up’ of particular people doesn’t change the structural hierarchies and inequalities of our society.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Digital Divide
Name of publication: The Network Observer
Title, headline, chapter name: Building the NII from the Bottom Up: A Strategy for Working Through Local Organizations
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://dlis.gseis.ucla.edu/people/pagre/tno/april-1994.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne