The Internet is composed of extraordinarily cheap and parsimonious people who will go way out of their way, for example, to avoid spending 50 cents on a long-distance phone call. You’ve met them. I think they will be equally stingy with their digital cash. People don’t trust sites on-line. If I go down the block and buy something from a merchant, I trust that when there’s cash exchanged, I’m going to get the goods and I’m not going to get ripped off. On-line I’m not so sure about that. The business that’s here today, it can disappear tomorrow, change its e-mail address. I may easily get burned. That’s not to say don’t make World Wide Web browsers. They’re fun, they’re enjoyable, but they’re grossly oversold.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 Computerworld article, journalist Lory Zottola Dix, interviewed security expert and author Cliff Stoll about the hype over the Internet. In response to the question, “Won’t the advent of digital cash spur electronic commerce?” Stoll replies: ”I don’t believe it. The Internet is composed of extraordinarily cheap and parsimonious people who will go way out of their way, for example, to avoid spending 50 cents on a long-distance phone call. You’ve met them. I think they will be equally stingy with their digital cash. People don’t trust sites on-line. If I go down the block and buy something from a merchant, I trust that when there’s cash exchanged, I’m going to get the goods and I’m not going to get ripped off. On-line I’m not so sure about that. The business that’s here today, it can disappear tomorrow, change its e-mail address. I may easily get burned. That’s not to say don’t make World Wide Web browsers. They’re fun, they’re enjoyable, but they’re grossly oversold.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: E-commerce
Name of publication: Computerworld
Title, headline, chapter name: An Interview with Cliff Stoll; This Security Expert, Network Pioneer and Best-selling Author is Sick and Tired of Internet Hype
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 85
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne