I’m sure [Asychronous Transfer Mode] will be a reality somewhere, but it will take longer than people expect. The possibility of it playing a major role diminishes as you move down to the desktop. If you look at data networking infrastructures, they’re nowhere close to capacity. There’s nothing wrong with a high-speed, low-latency backbone, but people want to evolve their infrastructures, not completely replace them. The average user is still trying to figure out how to put internetworking on the floor and keep their Ethernets and token rings running … My rule of thumb is that major paradigm shifts occur when the real market requirement is not understood or has been ignored by the vendors, leaving a pent-up demand that goes unfulfilled.
Predictor: Hart, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 Network World article, John Hart, chief technical officer at 3Com Corp., discusses the issues shaping technology and the market in an interview with reporter Skip MacAskill at ComNet ’93 in Washington, D.C. MacAskill quotes Hart saying: ”I’m sure [Asychronous Transfer Mode] will be a reality somewhere, but it will take longer than people expect. The possibility of it playing a major role diminishes as you move down to the desktop. If you look at data networking infrastructures, they’re nowhere close to capacity. There’s nothing wrong with a high-speed, low-latency backbone, but people want to evolve their infrastructures, not completely replace them. The average user is still trying to figure out how to put internetworking on the floor and keep their Ethernets and token rings running … My rule of thumb is that major paradigm shifts occur when the real market requirement is not understood or has been ignored by the vendors, leaving a pent-up demand that goes unfulfilled.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Network World
Title, headline, chapter name: Busy Internet Keeps Managers on Toes; 3Com Exec Discusses Choices Net Managers Must Make in this World of Constant Change
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 21
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne