The traditional way of looking at TCP/IP and OSI would be that TCP/IP would go away and be replaced by OSI. That is clearly not going to happen. One cannot imagine a scenario of a pure transition from TCP/IP to OSI. But parts of the OSI work can be adopted by the Internet. The Internet architecture has evolved, so it’s not pure TCP/IP but not pure OSI. Trying to get everyone to do everything the same way is utopian. But everyone needs to know what everyone else is doing. This will only work if we’re successful in deploying directories. There are two models today, the current Domain Name System and X.500. There’s a process going on of merging [the two] that will be based on the X.500 standard, but it is not an X.500 system.
Predictor: Chapin, Lyman
Prediction, in context:In a 1992 Network World article, Ellen Messmer interviews Lyman Chapin, chief network architect for BBN Communications Corp. and chairman of the Network Working Group’s Internet Activities Board. The IAB sets Internet standards and reviews the operations of two subsidiary groups, the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) and the Internet Research Task Force (IRTF). Messmer quotes Chapin saying: ”The traditional way of looking at TCP/IP and OSI would be that TCP/IP would go away and be replaced by OSI. That is clearly not going to happen. One cannot imagine a scenario of a pure transition from TCP/IP to OSI. But parts of the OSI work can be adopted by the Internet. The Internet architecture has evolved, so it’s not pure TCP/IP but not pure OSI. Trying to get everyone to do everything the same way is utopian. But everyone needs to know what everyone else is doing. This will only work if we’re successful in deploying directories. There are two models today, the current Domain Name System and X.500. There’s a process going on of merging [the two] that will be based on the X.500 standard, but it is not an X.500 system. The deployment of the directory will be demand-driven. IAB is trying to encourage the widespread deployment of DNS – the list of host names with Internet addresses – but later, we’ll deploy something like X.500.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Protocols
Name of publication: Network World
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Architect Gives Long-Term View; Lyman Chapin, IAB Chairman, Highlights Critical Issues Involved in Running the World’s Largest Net
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 37
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne