The prediction, in brief:

As soon as kids find the Net alternative, they spend less time watching TV. The number of Web sites is doubling every 53 days. These will increase, not decrease, and provide the basis for a huge nano-economy when we crack the nut of e-cash … More and more people will want to be their own head ends. Our wiring and our consumption of new media are deeply interwoven. What we see in the current fiber-coax strategies is fiscal timidity, justified by the usage patterns of an old-line broadcast model, not the Net. There is a way to do it right, and that is to provide fiber all the way to the home.

Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Nicholas Negroponte, founder of MIT’s Media Lab, makes his case for taking fiber all the way to people’s homes rather than settling for a combination of fiber to the neighborhood and coax to the home. Negroponte writes:”The use of bandwidth is generational. As soon as kids find the Net alternative, they spend less time watching TV. The number of Web sites is doubling every 53 days. These will increase, not decrease, and provide the basis for a huge nano-economy when we crack the nut of e-cash … More and more people will want to be their own head ends. Our wiring and our consumption of new media are deeply interwoven. What we see in the current fiber-coax strategies is fiscal timidity, justified by the usage patterns of an old-line broadcast model, not the Net. There is a way to do it right, and that is to provide fiber all the way to the home. Instead of wasting time justifying half-baked ideas, let’s find ways to finance the solution. The Italians already have.”

Biography:

Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: 2020: The Fiber-Coax Legacy – What We See in the Current Fiber-Coax Strategies is Fiscal Timidity, Justified by the Usage Patterns of an Old-Line Broadcast and Publishing Model, Not the Net

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.10/negroponte_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney