Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

It will take us years to build digital libraries and longer to retool copyright law … In a digital world, the bits are endlessly copyable, infinitely malleable, and they never go out of print … Pass a Bill of Writes – a digital deposit act – requiring that each item submitted to the Library of Congress be accompanied by its digital source. Make it illegal to obtain copyright otherwise … Instead of being the “library of last resort,” it might become the first place to look … A Library of Progress could be in the pockets of tomorrow’s kids. Having a Bill of Writes now means that we can spend the next 20 to 50 years hammering out new digital-property laws and international agreements without stunting our future.

Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Nicholas Negroponte, founder of MIT’s Media Lab, frames an argument for his idea of copyright law in the networked world in the form of an open letter to Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich. Negroponte writes: ”All of copyright law is essentially a Gutenberg artifact, bound to paper and construed in ignorance of the digital age. It will take us years to build digital libraries and longer to retool copyright law. Intellectual property is an extraordinarily complex subject. We are almost clueless about how to handle digital derivative works and digital fair use. In a digital world, the bits are endlessly copyable, infinitely malleable, and they never go out of print. Millions of people can simultaneously read any digital document – and they can also steal it. So, how do we protect digital information? Our own export laws (a separate issue you may want to consider) stymie encryption shamelessly. The information age is in a bit of a mess when it comes to understanding who may access what, when, how, and under the control of whom. But don’t wait. You control the library that manages United States copyrights. Establish a Bill of Writes immediately. Force us to find solutions, so our children and grandchildren can benefit sooner, rather than later, from being digital. Here is the idea. Pass a Bill of Writes – a digital deposit act – requiring that each item submitted to the Library of Congress be accompanied by its digital source. Make it illegal to obtain copyright otherwise … Instead of being the ‘library of last resort,’ it might become the first place to look. In a richly woven infrastructure, the Library of Congress could be transformed from a depository into a ‘retrievatory.’ It would be closer to your desk and closer to the living-room couch than any of the thousands of public library buildings. A Library of Progress could be in the pockets of tomorrow’s kids. Having a Bill of Writes now means that we can spend the next 20 to 50 years hammering out new digital-property laws and international agreements without stunting our future. More importantly, it means that publishers and authors can elect to make their bits available after they decide they have earned enough, and the bits will be ready to go. Without a Bill of Writes, our grandchildren will spend a lot of time digitizing the 70 million items that will be saved by your library over the next 30 years. The British and the French are building gigantic new buildings to hold more shelves for future atoms. Let our country be the first to write being digital into law.”

Biography:

Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Copyright/Intellectual Property/Plagiarism

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: A Bill of Writes

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.05/negroponte_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney