The question will be, can [high-speed distributed computing] be done? The money is there if the help can be found … In the next 10 years, the industry will see a reemergence of systems integrators to bring all these pieces together and make them work.
Predictor: Farber, David J.
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Network World, Michael Cooney quotes David Farber. Cooney writes: ”Even if the high-speed network technologies envisioned in labs similar to Farber’s reach the product stage, they’ll still have to overcome mundane user concerns such as cost. But Farber does not think cost will be an issue for long when users find out what can be done with distributed computing. ‘If there are problems in corporations that won’t go away and users are killing themselves to get the work done, cost will not be an issue,’ he says. ‘The question will be, can [high-speed distributed computing] be done? The money is there if the help can be found.’ The help will come, at least in part, from systems integrators, according to Farber. ‘What we have now is a lot of small companies, each of which do parts of technology nicely, but we need a system that can integrate all these pieces,’ he says. ‘In the next 10 years, the industry will see a reemergence of systems integrators to bring all these pieces together and make them work.’ But then again, nothing is certain in the distributed computing world of the future. Prediction is a dangerous business: Only a decade or so ago, some people said there was no market for personal computers in the workplace. ‘Many vendors want firm marketing forecasts before they’ll enter a market,’ Farber says. ‘But sometimes you’ll find people who are willing to take some gamble and they win. ‘I think the future will be an excellent time to take some gambles,’ he adds.”
Biography:David Farber was the recipient of the 1995 ACM Sigcomm Award for lifelong contributions to the computer communications field. He has worked at the University of Pennsylvania, managing research in high-speed networking. In 2000, he served as chief technologist at the U.S. Federal Communications Commission. He also directed the Center for Communications and Information Sciences and Policy. In 1997, Upside magazine named him one of its Elite 100 visionaries of high-tech. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Network World
Title, headline, chapter name: A Distributed View of the World; U. Penn Visionary Sees an Intrinsic Link Between Ultra-High-Speed Networks and the Emergence of True Distributed Computing
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=9d2d6da29473e39b5b83a4bd91935809&_docnum=12&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlAl&_md5=4350ed360ec2153ee209b0bd3069ce73
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Goodrich, Barbara J.