How much will it cost? Present estimates run between $300 billion and $1 trillion – obviously not rendering a lot of precision … If the high cost estimates turn out to be accurate, the RBOCs (serving 80 percent of U.S. households) may not be able to place enough debt to implement the NII.
Predictor: Botein, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 paper in reaction to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration’s proposed goals, New York Law School Professor Michael Botein writes: ”How much will it cost? Present estimates run between $300 billion and $1 trillion – obviously not rendering a lot of precision. Does the private sector have enough capital to build the NII [National Information Infrastructure]? To the extent that the main ‘superhighway’ builders are the LECs, this may be questionable. For example, the seven Regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) – spun off in the 1984 AT&T divestiture – apparently can support between $3 billion and $60 billion in new debt. If the high cost estimates turn out to be accurate, the RBOCs (serving 80 percent of U.S. households) may not be able to place enough debt to implement the NII.”
Biography:Michael Botein was founding director of the Communications Media Center at New York University Law School. His expertise in international telecommunications law, the regulation of cable television and new technologies made him a valuable consultant to the FCC and the Administrative Conference of the United States. He wrote “International Telecommunications in the United States” (1987) and “Cases and Materials on Regulation of the Electronic Mass Media” (2002). (Legislator/Politician/Lawyer.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: Some Unanswered (and Unasked) Questions About U.S. 'Electronic Superhighways'
Title, headline, chapter name: A Few Simple Questions, with Few Good Answers
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http;//web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?-m=1d42675a009942cca236934d0ad13920...
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Bradshaw, Lindsay