The U.S. government and industry should proceed with caution in entering the new digital age. High-capacity fiber systems probably will become a mainstay of all developed countries’ telecom infrastructure at some point in the next millennium. For the moment, however, it might be wise to slow the whole process down a bit.
Predictor: Botein, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 paper in reaction to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration’s proposed goals, New York Law School Professor Michael Botein writes:”This area is fraught with perils … the U.S. government and industry should proceed with caution in entering the new digital age. High-capacity fiber systems probably will become a mainstay of all developed countries’ telecom infrastructure at some point in the next millennium. For the moment, however, it might be wise to slow the whole process down a bit. After all, the U.S. should know by now that being first into a new technology is not always a benefit; the … experience with NTSC television should be a nightly reminder to U.S. telecom policy planners of the value of letting others make the mistakes.”
Biography:Michael Botein was founding director of the Communications Media Center at New York University Law School. His expertise in international telecommunications law, the regulation of cable television and new technologies made him a valuable consultant to the FCC and the Administrative Conference of the United States. He wrote “International Telecommunications in the United States” (1987) and “Cases and Materials on Regulation of the Electronic Mass Media” (2002). (Legislator/Politician/Lawyer.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: E-learning
Name of publication: Some Unanswered (and Unasked) Questions About U.S. 'Electronic Superhighways'
Title, headline, chapter name: A Few Simple Questions, with Few Good Answers
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http;//web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?-m=1d42675a009942cca236934d0ad13920...
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Bradshaw, Lindsay