How do we ensure that out communications infrastructure serves today’s needs as well as tomorrow’s visions? … The critical requirements for infrastructure are that it be universally available, reasonably priced, and capable of providing short-term advantages within five years and full advantages within 10 years. Virtually everyone agrees that we need a long-term strategy that will result in a system of integrated phone, video, radio, and information services … On the question of RBOC entry into long distance, I am not persuaded at the present time it would be good for consumers if the RBOCs were permitted to offer long-distance services … I propose that local telephone companies be permitted to enter the cable business only in the old-fashioned way – by building a new system. They should not be allowed to enter by buying an existing cable system.
Predictor: Markey, Edward
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “The Information Revolution,” edited by Donald Altschiller, carries a reprint of a Fall, 1993 Issues in Science and Technology article by Rep. Edward J. Markey titled “A Legislative Agenda for Telecommunications.” Markey (D-Mass.), is the chairman of the subcommittee on Telecommunications and Finance of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. He writes: ”To accomplish the overarching goal of building a national communications ‘infostructure,’ we need to address four separate questions that together add up to a comprehensive view of how our communications network will evolve… First, how do we ensure that out communications infrastructure serves today’s needs as well as tomorrow’s visions? … The critical requirements for infrastructure are that it be universally available, reasonably priced, and capable of providing short-term advantages within five years and full advantages within 10 years. Virtually everyone agrees that we need a long-term strategy that will result in a system of integrated phone, video, radio, and information services … The second question: Should the RBOCs (Regional Bell Operating Companies or ‘Baby Bells’) be allowed to enter the manufacturing of long-distance businesses? It seems to me that the RBOCs have made a good case that they need to be able to collaborate with equipment engineers from other companies and that they need to be in the research stage of product development … On the question of RBOC entry into long distance, I am not persuaded at the present time it would be good for consumers if the RBOCs were permitted to offer long-distance services … The matter of phone-company control of the local phone loop brings me to the next question: How will we manage the introduction of competition into the local loop? … Local loop competition means that when you pick up the phone you reach the local company of your choice, just as you now do when making a long-distance call. But reaching this goal will take much effort. First and foremost, we must solve the unavoidable problems of universal service and affordable rates … The last question facing the communications policymakers is: Should telephone companies be able to provide video programming and enter the cable business in their own service territories? … I propose that local telephone companies be permitted to enter the cable business only in the old-fashioned way – by building a new system. They should not be allowed to enter by buying an existing cable system. The reason for this is simple: The best rationale for lifting the restriction would be to promote competition with cable. Buying an existing system does not change the competitive scenery.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: The Information Revolution (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: A Legislative Agenda for Telecommunications
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 102
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne