The playing field in the global telecommunications industry will never be level, but the degree of individual freedom available through telecommunication technologies in the future may depend upon whether the market for goods and services in cyberspace remains open for new companies to create new uses for CMC.
Predictor: Rheingold, Howard
Prediction, in context:Howard Rheingold, at the time the editor of The Whole Earth Review and a prolific member of the Well online community, became an advocate for such groups. In 1988 The Whole Earth Review published his article, “Virtual Communities.” Four years later, he said, “I reread it and realized that I had learned a few things, and that the world I was observing had changed. So I rewrote it.” The following excerpts are taken from this 1992 rewrite, which was published online by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Portions of it also appeared in “Globalizing Networks: Computers and International Communication,” edited by Linda Harasim and Jan Walls (MIT Press) and in the book “The Virtual Community,” by Rheingold (MIT Press). ”Will the world’s increasingly interlinked, increasingly powerful, decreasingly costly communications infrastructure be controlled by a small number of very large companies? Will cyberspace be privatized and parceled out to those who can afford to buy into the auction? If political forces do not seize the high ground and end today’s freewheeling exchange of ideas, it is still possible for a more benevolent form of economic control to stunt the evolution of virtual communities, if a small number of companies gain the power to put up toll-roads in the information networks, and smaller companies are not able to compete with them. Or will there be an open market, in which newcomers like Apple or Microsoft can become industry leaders? The playing field in the global telecommunications industry will never be level, but the degree of individual freedom available through telecommunication technologies in the future may depend upon whether the market for goods and services in cyberspace remains open for new companies to create new uses for CMC.”
Biography:Howard Rheingold, one of the first writers to illuminate the ideals and foibles of virtual communities, published a webzine called Electric Minds and wrote “Virtual Reality,” “Smart Mobs” and “Virtual Community.” He also was the editor of Whole Earth Review and the Millennium Whole Earth Catalog. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Electronic Frontier Foundation
Title, headline, chapter name: A Slice of Life in My Virtual Community
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.cosy.sbg.ac.at/doc/eegtti/eeg_261.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney