If the use of virtual communities turns out to answer a deep and compelling need in people, and not just snag onto a human foible like pinball or Pac-man, today’s small online enclaves may grow into much larger networks over the next 20 years.
Predictor: Rheingold, Howard
Prediction, in context:Howard Rheingold, at the time the editor of The Whole Earth Review and a prolific member of the Well online community, became an advocate for virtual communities. In 1988, The Whole Earth Review published his article, “Virtual Communities.” Four years later, he said, “I reread it and realized that I had learned a few things, and that the world I was observing had changed. So I rewrote it.” The following excerpts are taken from this 1992 rewrite, which was published online by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Portions of it also appeared in “Globalizing Networks: Computers and International Communication,” edited by Linda Harasim and Jan Walls (MIT Press) and in the book “The Virtual Community,” by Rheingold (MIT Press). Rheingold writes: ”The ways in which people use CMC [computer-mediated communication] always will be rooted in human needs, not hardware or software. If the use of virtual communities turns out to answer a deep and compelling need in people, and not just snag onto a human foible like pinball or Pac-man, today’s small online enclaves may grow into much larger networks over the next 20 years. The potential for social change is a side-effect of the trajectory of telecommunications and computer industries, as it can be forecast for the next 10 years.
Biography:Howard Rheingold, one of the first writers to illuminate the ideals and foibles of virtual communities, published a webzine called Electric Minds and wrote “Virtual Reality,” “Smart Mobs” and “Virtual Community.” He also was the editor of Whole Earth Review and the Millennium Whole Earth Catalog. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Virtual Communities
Name of publication: Electronic Frontier Foundation
Title, headline, chapter name: A Slice of Life in My Virtual Community: A Cybernaut’s-Eye View
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.cosy.sbg.ac.at/doc/eegtti/eeg_260.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney