I see a wide gulf between the real networks that I use daily and the promised land of the information infrastructure … Few aspects of daily life require computers, digital networks, or massive connectivity. They’re irrelevant to cooking, driving, visiting, negotiating, eating, hiking, dancing and gossiping. You don’t need a keyboard to bake bread, play touch football, piece a quilt, build a stone wall, recite a poem or say a prayer … I’m saddened that so many accept the false promises of a hyper-hyped idea. Overpromoted, the small, intimate benefits of the Internet are being destroyed by their own success.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Silicon Snake Oil,” writer Clifford Stoll shares his take on what he considers to be dubious projections of the wonders to be wrought by the Internet: ”Public officials now speak of the Internet as a major resource in our nation’s commercial and academic infrastructure. No longer an experiment, it’s to become a part of our schools, our businesses, our homes, our lives. Yet who knows what the proposed National Information Infrastructure will be? Will it be a scheme for hundreds of video channels over cable? Will it become a way to bring the Internet out of the universities and into our homes and public schools? Will it be primarily a commercial endeavor or a public service? Will the government regulate its growth and content? Will it be a part of the telephone or cable-television system? Should I worry that local bulletin boards won’t have access? Will the government further subsidize an industry that’s making lots of money already? The answer is yes to all of the above, and more … I see a wide gulf between the real networks that I use daily and the promised land of the information infrastructure … Few aspects of daily life require computers, digital networks, or massive connectivity. They’re irrelevant to cooking, driving, visiting, negotiating, eating, hiking, dancing and gossiping. You don’t need a keyboard to bake bread, play touch football, piece a quilt, build a stone wall, recite a poem or say a prayer … I’m saddened that so many accept the false promises of a hyper-hyped idea. Overpromoted, the small, intimate benefits of the Internet are being destroyed by their own success.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Silicon Snake Oil
Title, headline, chapter name: A Speleological Introduction to the Author’s Ambivalence
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 9, 10
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.