A network must be saddled with more expensive and complex electronics, and it becomes more difficult to process the smaller pulses of light needed to transmit tens of gigabits (a gigabit is a billion bits) of digital information in a second’s time. Above a certain transmission speed – about 50 gigabits per second – electronic equipment will find it hard to handle this constant back-and-forth transformation between electrons and light waves. It would be simpler, faster and more economical to transfer an optical signal from one end of a network to the other by using the properities of the light wave itself to route the transmission along different pathways through the network.
Predictor: Chan, Vincent
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article published in Scientific American, Vincent Chan discusses the coming fiberoptic network enhancements. He writes: ”A network must be saddled with more expensive and complex electronics, and it becomes more difficult to process the smaller pulses of light needed to transmit tens of gigabits (a gigabit is a billion bits) of digital information in a second’s time. Above a certain transmission speed – about 50 gigabits per second – electronic equipment will find it hard to handle this constant back-and-forth transformation between electrons and light waves. It would be simpler, faster and more economical to transfer an optical signal from one end of a network to the other by using the properities of the light wave itself to route the transmission along different pathways through the network. The signal would become electronic only when it moved into the circuits of the computer for which it is destined or else into a lower-speed network that still employs electronic processing of signals. This all-optical network would build on the successes of fiberoptics networks currently deployed commercially that rely on optoelectronic components for signal processing. Commercial fiberoptic cables owned by long-distance telecommunications companies, for example, transfer telepone calls and video images as digital bits, as many as 2.5 gigabits each second per fiber. This multigigabit transport of information is fast enough to move an edition of the Encyclopaedia Britannica from coast to coast in a second’s time. But if communications traffic grows dramatically, reliance on optoelectronics will eventually limit the ability of these networks to carry more information.”
Date of prediction: September 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Scientific American
Title, headline, chapter name: All-Optical Networks
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web11.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+0%2C1%2C2%2C3+ln+en%2Dus+sid+4350E799%2D2B2C%2D4188%2D8440%2DC41383A837A8%40Sessionmgr6+51F4&_us=bs+chan%2C++vincent+ds+chan%2C++vincent+dstb+KS+hd+0+hs+0+or+Date+ri+KAAACBTB00226030+sm+KS+so+b+ss+SO+B6B8&fn=1&rn=5
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Kafoure, David