One of the principal challenges … is to multiplex and switch these packets of data without having to convert them to an electronic signal. A fiber may transmit a total of 100 gigabits each second, but is divided into designated time intervals so that 10 users, say, can each send 10 gigbits per second. Each sender of data can be assigned a slot of time in which to place packets with 10 gigabits per second of data onto the network, or it may transmit them in any unused time slot. The packets from one sender get interspersed with packets from other senders, each of them having a different time interval in which to transmit a message. Because communications capacity is apportioned by time, not wavelength, the technique is called time-division multiplexing.
Predictor: Chan, Vincent
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article published in Scientific American, Vincent Chan discusses the coming fiberoptic network enhancements. He writes: ”The technological future of the Internet may be gleaned by examining advanced research in optical-packet networks. In such a network, a single wavelength would carry pulses of light from a laser that can switch off and on in a trillionth of a second. The light pulses are generated by lasers quickly enough to transmit as many as 100 gigbits each second, with each pulse representing one bit. Each pulse would be combined with perhaps 10,000 or so other pulses from the same laser to create a data packet … One of the principal challenges in building such an optical superhighway is to multiplex and switch these packets of data without having to convert them to an electronic signal. A fiber may transmit a total of 100 gigabits each second, but is divided into designated time intervals so that 10 users, say, can each send 10 gigbits per second. Each sender of data can be assigned a slot of time in which to place packets with 10 gigabits per second of data onto the network, or it may transmit them in any unused time slot. The packets from one sender get interspersed with packets from other senders, each of them having a different time interval in which to transmit a message. Because communications capacity is apportioned by time, not wavelength, the technique is called time-division multiplexing.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Scientific American
Title, headline, chapter name: All-Optical Networks
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web11.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+0%2C1%2C2%2C3+ln+en%2Dus+sid+4350E799%2D2B2C%2D4188%2D8440%2DC41383A837A8%40Sessionmgr6+51F4&_us=bs+chan%2C++vincent+ds+chan%2C++vincent+dstb+KS+hd+0+hs+0+or+Date+ri+KAAACBTB00226030+sm+KS+so+b+ss+SO+B6B8&fn=1&rn=5
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney