The prediction, in brief:

Bit-heads talk about digital cash, but that can only show experimental systems with fancy names like DigiCash and First Virtual. For a long while, it’s funny money … A network address isn’t associated with a physical location, so it’s open turf for fraud … network-authentication software can never give the same sense of trust as a face-to-face business transaction. No computer network with pretty graphics can ever replace the salespeople that make our society work.

Predictor: Stoll, Clifford

Prediction, in context:

In his 1995 book “Silicon Snake Oil,” writer Clifford Stoll shares his take on the Internet’s future implications:”There are good reasons why business doesn’t work over the Internet … there’s no way to send money over the network. Bit-heads talk about digital cash, but that can only show experimental systems with fancy names like DigiCash and First Virtual. For a long while, it’s funny money. I’m not even certain that a transaction is valid. I don’t know who’s at the other end of the connection. A network address isn’t associated with a physical location, so it’s open turf for fraud. ‘Just technical details that can and are being fixed,’ says Bill Cheswick, a programmer at AT&T. ‘After digital cash is introduced, we’ll be able to carry out business directly over the network.’ By implication, we’ll carry our routine sales through networks, bypassing salespeople. I disagree: network-authentication software can never give the same sense of trust as a face-to-face business transaction. No computer network with pretty graphics can ever replace the salespeople that make our society work.”

Biography:

Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: E-commerce

Name of publication: Silicon Snake Oil

Title, headline, chapter name: An Amalgam of Popular Fictions About the Internet, Including Brief Trips to China and The City of No Illusions

Quote Type: Partial quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 20, 21

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.