Imagine the possibilities when GPS and a cellular telephone can be combined on a cheap chip set and installed almost anywhere. Huge amounts of time and money have already been invested, for example, in trying to perfect collision avoidance systems for planes and jets. But combine GPS with a simple transmitter and computer and you have a system that might well be far cheaper and more accurate than any current alternative … If you want to track migratory birds, prisoners on parole or (what amounts to much the same thing) a teenage daughter in possession of your car keys, you are going to be a customer sooner or later.
Predictor: Huber, Peter
Prediction, in context:In a 1992 article for Forbes magazine, Peter Huber, a senior fellow of the Manhattan Institute, makes the following statement: ”Outside the military and the aviation industry, global positioning is still widely viewed as a high-tech gadget of little real importance, much as lasers were before they crept into VCRs, compact discs and telephone lines. But the market possibilities of this new system are huge. The most obvious applications are probably the least interesting. The right combination of satellites, electronic Rand McNally and color display might after all prove to be a market winner in a few years. But whether or not a positioning system belongs in your Chevy’s dashboard, it does belong in a lot of other places. In the hands of anyone who builds highways, surveys real estate or repairs gas lines, for example. Send a backhoe to dig in the wrong place these days and MCI could lose Pennsylvania. Like Columbus, every crew that applies a jackhammer to a piece of urban tarmac has got to know what’s where. The answer is still in the stars, but GPS is infinitely more precise than a sextant, Joan Quigley or that tree stump your grandfather always used as his point of reference … Now imagine the possibilities when GPS and a cellular telephone can be combined on a cheap chip set and installed almost anywhere. Huge amounts of time and money have already been invested, for example, in trying to perfect collision avoidance systems for planes and jets. But combine GPS with a simple transmitter and computer and you have a system that might well be far cheaper and more accurate than any current alternative. Communicating GPS can be the ultimate flashing light for people (like truck drivers or jet pilots) who need to report their position to others. Hijacking the 18-wheeler or snatching a Corvette is going to get a lot riskier when tiny positioning transmitters can be concealed anywhere in the vehicle. If you want to track migratory birds, prisoners on parole or (what amounts to much the same thing) a teenage daughter in possession of your car keys, you are going to be a customer sooner or later. “
Biography:Peter Huber, a lawyer with degrees from MIT and Harvard, was a 1990s expert in telecommunications. (Legislator/Politician/Lawyer.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Wireless Technologies
Name of publication: Forbes
Title, headline, chapter name: An Ultimate Zip Code
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web14.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+1+ln+en%2Dus+sid+21373427%2D696C%2D4C22%2D8950%2D24281E7EBCC9%40sessionmgr5+D494&_us=bs+Peter++Huber+ds+Peter++Huber+dstb+KS+hd+0+hs+0+or+Date+ri+KAAACBWB00018850+sm+KS+so+b+ss+SO+3B20&cf=1&fn=41&rn=45
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Johnson, Kathleen