Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Breakthroughs in modern cryptography indicate that one day it will be universal and simple … Anonymity is scary stuff … What are the benefits and the risks? Even if we don’t want it, can we stop it?

Predictor: Levy, Steven

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Steven Levy discusses the issue of anonymity online: ”In Orson Scott Card’s classic sci-fi thriller ‘Ender’s Game,’ two key characters participate in a futuristic version of Usenet political discussion groups, posting messages of such pith and powerful reasoning that they sway the collective thought process of an entire planet. But none of the readers of the compelling electronic missives written by ‘Demosthenes’ and ‘Locke’ know the authors’ true identities: They have used technology to obscure the electronic trail by which the messages travel. So no one knows that the two most influential writers in that society are a brother and sister – ages 12 and 10, respectively. Can you send messages and post to the far reaches of the Net today with the same assurance of anonymity? Breakthroughs in modern cryptography indicate that one day it will be universal and simple, but some people have decided not to wait. They are a small, semi-organized band of cypherpunks and privacy freaks who are the keepers of the far fringe of anonymity: They are the people who run ‘remailers.’ … There are currently about 20 remailers operating, but they come and go, especially since many network providers have problems accommodating them. Anonymity is scary stuff. Quite reasonably, administrators worry about terrorists claiming credit for bombings or kidnappers posting ransom notes. Even in their experimental infancy, remailers have had an effect on Net culture. On one hand, there’s been an outburst of harassing or simply idiotic flames that have no return headers. On the other hand, there’s now a way for victims of sexual crimes or whistle-blowers to send mail and messages with the assurance of privacy. At this point, however, probably the most important role that remailers play is to launch a necessary dialogue on the issue of anonymity in a digital society. What are the benefits and the risks? Even if we don’t want it, can we stop it?”

Biography:

Steven Levy was a 1990s technology journalist. He wrote on the topic for decades for such publications as Newsweek and Wired. He is the author of the books “Hackers,” “Artificial Life” and “Crypto.” (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: June 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Anonymity/Personal Identity

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: Anonymously Yours – How to Launder Your E-mail

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.06/anonymous.2_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Lusk, James T.