I can still read the books I bought in the 1970s, but my Hewlett Packard 9830 files might as well be in Sanskrit. In the same way, Stoll cautions, reference works published on CD-ROM may be unreadable in a generation or two. Librarians, beware.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for The Tampa Tribune, Stephen Bates writes about Clifford Stoll, author of the book “Silicon Snake Oil,” a cautionary look at the impact of computers and the Internet. Bates writes:”‘Silicon Snake Oil’ spotlights several worrisome and underpublicized aspects of the new information technologies. For instance, computer operating systems and interfaces seem to be in nearly continuous flux, putting users through an aggravating re-education every few years. New systems, moreover, may be incapable of handling programs or text written on older systems. I can still read the books I bought in the 1970s, but my Hewlett Packard 9830 files might as well be in Sanskrit. In the same way, Stoll cautions, reference works published on CD-ROM may be unreadable in a generation or two. Librarians, beware.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Libraries/Databases
Name of publication: Tampa Tribune
Title, headline, chapter name: Beware the Net-heads
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=699382f1bfd3fa501603c9fbffaf2d3d&_docnum=39&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlzV&_md5=fce2ad5c303fc41f036f14160e66cac2
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.