One of our big opportunities here is to set the pace of that device so that it’s something that people welcome into their lives and enjoy … Imagine asking you today to stop using the telephone – never place or receive another phone call. That’s sobering, because it’s probably more important than any other tool that you’ve got, more important than your personal computer. So here will be the measure of our success: What happens if I ask you ten years from now to stop using your personal communicator? The idea is that you will say, “This is core to how I live. It’s like my glasses and my watch and my wallet.” Not using it would seem as disempowering as not using the telephone does today.
Predictor: Atkinson, Bill
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Steve Levy interviews hypercard inventor Bill Atkinson about his work with the Internet appliances he is working on for General Magic. Levy quotes Atkinson saying: ”We changed the look and feel and usability of a personal computer. The personal computer already existed, the concept was there, people knew what it was. What the Mac team did is the difference between DOS and Macintosh. We’re doing something similar to that here, with this new category of device, this personal communicator, which doesn’t quite have its face stuck on yet. So we’re not doing a face-lift but a face definition. We’re defining what is a personal communicator, so as to set a sort of minimum expectation in the industry, just like the Macintosh upped the expectation of what a personal computer could be. That’s the biggest thing, as all these different things are converging from the laptops getting smaller and the cell phones getting more display and CD players getting more display. It’s like a lot of different areas are converging on an electronic box that’s in your pocket, that’s with you all the time, that supports you in some way. That’s going to happen with or without General Magic. I think one of our big opportunities here is to set the pace of that device so that it’s something that people welcome into their lives and enjoy, as opposed to something they submit to and suffer along with. Imagine asking you today to stop using the telephone – never place or receive another phone call. That’s sobering, because it’s probably more important than any other tool that you’ve got, more important than your personal computer. So here will be the measure of our success: What happens if I ask you ten years from now to stop using your personal communicator? The idea is that you will say, ‘This is core to how I live. It’s like my glasses and my watch and my wallet.’ Not using it would seem as disempowering as not using the telephone does today.”
Biography:Bill Atkinson was the man behind many of Apple Computer’s biggest innovations in the 1980s and early ’90s. He was honored with a 1994 EFF Pioneer Award for his work as the graphics-toolbox developer for Apple’s Lisa computers and his application HyperCard, the first truly mass-market hypertext product. In the mid-’90s he became chief scientist at General Magic, a company creating software for personal communicators and digital agents. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: April 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Bill and Andy’s Excellent Adventure II
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.04/general.magic_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney