As the NII becomes a reality, groups will undoubtedly emerge that view it as a threat. TV and radio networks, cable companies, movie theaters, and print publishers would perceive their roles as being diminished, since anyone with a computer could become a publisher or broadcaster. This would democratize the media – albeit at the cost of our becoming inundated with choices and a great deal of informational junk. The prospect of such a mess, however, would bring into the picture a new form of publishing. Literary entrepreneurs would sift through the junk for diamonds and, with the authors’ agreement, edit and sell their findings over the NII.
Predictor: Dertouzos, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1991 article for Technology Review, MIT researcher/administrator Michael Dertouzos writes:”As the NII [National Information Infrastructure] becomes a reality, groups will undoubtedly emerge that view it as a threat. TV and radio networks, cable companies, movie theaters, and print publishers would perceive their roles as being diminished, since anyone with a computer could become a publisher or broadcaster. This would democratize the media – albeit at the cost of our becoming inundated with choices and a great deal of informational junk. The prospect of such a mess, however, would bring into the picture a new form of publishing. Literary entrepreneurs would sift through the junk for diamonds and, with the authors’ agreement, edit and sell their findings over the NII. Thus publishing and broadcasting over the NII might not be all that different from what they are today. The overall terrain would undoubtedly be richer, though, with far more material available to many more people.”
Biography:Michael Dertouzos was director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science and the author of “The Unfinished Revolution.” He led a project intended to make computers adapt to people. He outlined a comprehensive proposal for a national information “infrastructure” in a 1991 article for Technology Review. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1991
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Publishing
Name of publication: Technology Review
Title, headline, chapter name: Building the Information Marketplace
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web3.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/237/651/57953601w3/purl=rc1_EAIM_0_A9329382&dyn=5!xrn_1_0_A9329382?sw_aep=ncliveec
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney