Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

The NREN is a big new subdivision on the edge of the metropolis, reserved for researchers and educators. It is going to be built first and is going to look lonely out there in the middle of the pasture for a while. But the city will grow up around it in time, and as construction proceeds, the misadventures encountered in the NREN subdivision will not have to be repeated in others. And there will be many house designs, not just those the NREN families are comfortable with…. The lessons we learn today in building the NREN will be used tomorrow in building the NII.

Predictor: Roberts, Michael

Prediction, in context:

In a September 1991 submission to the Network Working Group’s Request for Comments (Request for Comments 1259), Mitchell Kapor, co-founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, writes: ”The NREN [National Research and Education Network] design and construction process is complex and will have significant effects on future communications infrastructure design, [as Michael Roberts writes in “Positioning the National Research and Education Network,” in EDUCOM magazine, Summer 1991,] ‘Building the NREN has frequently been described as akin to building a house, with various layers of the network architecture compared to parts of the house. In an expanded view of this analogy, planning the NII [National Information Infrastructure] is like designing a large, urban city. The NREN is a big new subdivision on the edge of the metropolis, reserved for researchers and educators. It is going to be built first and is going to look lonely out there in the middle of the pasture for a while. But the city will grow up around it in time, and as construction proceeds, the misadventures encountered in the NREN subdivision will not have to be repeated in others. And there will be many house designs, not just those the NREN families are comfortable with…. The lessons we learn today in building the NREN will be used tomorrow in building the NII.'”

Biography:

Michael Roberts was the first president and CEO of ICANN (the Internet Corporation of Assigned Names and Numbers), serving from October 1998 until March 2001. He worked as a policy consultant in the field of Internet technology, services and product development, with a specialization in research and education. Prior to taking on the start-up of ICANN, he was vice president at EDUCOM, a consortium of 600 universities and colleges with interests in information technology. (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: September 1, 1991

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware

Name of publication: Requests For Comments

Title, headline, chapter name: Building the Open Road: The NREN As Test-Bed for the National Public Network

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/Publications/Mitch_Kapor/nren_npn_nii_kapor_eff.rfc

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney