While the aggregate behavior of users dispersed across a network often might not cause serious bandwidth problems today, widespread patterns of bandwidth-intensive individual behavior, in extreme cases, can. What about the user who heavily accesses graphics or movies on the Web? While there may be no laws to stop this user, an agreement between the user and the Internet service provider might restrict such activity.
Predictor: December, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Computer-Mediated Communication magazine, John December writes: ”The current Internet/Web relies on an open-access model: anyone can follow a public link in a Web page and call up a resource, whether it is a 300-byte HTML file or a 1.8 Megabyte MPEG movie. While the relatively limited number of Web users today and adequate network bandwidth make this model feasible, its future is threatened if there are far more Web users without a proportional increase in bandwidth. Essentially, the problem relates to the ‘tragedy of the commons’ situation: a commonly held resource (network bandwidth), when made freely available to all, sometimes results in users abusing the resource. While the aggregate behavior of users dispersed across a network often might not cause serious bandwidth problems today, widespread patterns of bandwidth-intensive individual behavior, in extreme cases, can. What about the user who heavily accesses graphics or movies on the Web? While there may be no laws to stop this user, an agreement between the user and the Internet service provider might restrict such activity. If the user violated this agreement, he or she could lose the account. However, on a much larger scale, enforcement and the definition of what is ‘overuse’ is harder to pin down. Our society’s emerging sense of ‘etiquette’ has only begun to address this and other issues about behavior in a public network space. While Arlene H. Rinaldi’s excellent Net Etiquette guide touches on many practical issues of personal behavior, larger questions remain that are not easily resolved or codified. For example, what about individuals who provide information that may be: Illegal in some jurisdictions where it could be downloaded (for example, non-exportable encryption programs or information that is banned in a particular country or state); offensive to others beyond mere ‘disagreements,’ but violating cultural and community standards for offensiveness; in violation of copyright laws or counter to Net traditions for information dissemination and intellectual property protection; intended to undermine or overthrow a government? Court cases may test these issues and prompt legislation.”
Biography:John December’s publications include articles and books about the World Wide Web, Internet and Java. From 1985 to 1989, he developed software and graphical user interfaces to analyze aircraft requirements for military missions at Boeing. He later became president of December Communications, an online Web-publishing, presentations, and consulting company based in Milwaukee, Wis. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Bandwidth
Name of publication: Computer-Mediated Communication Magazine
Title, headline, chapter name: Challenges for a Webbed Society
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1994/nov/websoc.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Walsh, Meghan