If the new telecommunications age brings unmediated democracy, what will happen to our carefully contrived constitutional system of checks and balances? Who will protect minorities against the passions and tyranny of the popular majority? Who will protect the majority from manipulation by public opinion experts, political spin doctors, and unscrupulous pollsters? Who will protect the poor from the permanent majority of the ‘haves?’ Who can offset the persuasive power of big money, the often lying and misleading political commercials, the corruption of politics … For most issues, it is unlikely they will take the time to learn all they need to know or deepen their understanding, no matter how inexpensive, accessible, or convenient additional information might be.
Predictor: Grossman, Lawrence K.
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Electronic Republic: Reshaping Democracy in the Information Age,” Lawrence Grossman, former president of NBC News and PBS, writes: ”As much as one would like to believe that the people themselves are best qualified to judge what is in their self-interest, the reality is that informed specialists are more likely to make sound judgments. Democracy needs a governing elite. Of course, the people at large tend to have a very different view these days about the ‘wisdom’ and ‘love of justice’ of their ‘chosen body of citizens.’ Twenty-five hundred years ago Plato, drawing on his own experiences in Athens, expressed similar distrust of common people in The Republic. The people, he said, are bad judges in political matters. The common man has no experience with foreign policy, economics, or national issues; to expect sensible judgment and expert knowledge on matters from ordinary citizens ‘is to expect the impossible. He will judge on impulse, sentiment, or prejudice, and though his hear may be sound his head will be muddled.’ Moreover, direct democracy, Plato said, encourages bad leadership … If the new telecommunications age brings unmediated democracy, what will happen to our carefully contrived constitutional system of checks and balances? Who will protect minorities against the passions and tyranny of the popular majority? Who will protect the majority from manipulation by public opinion experts, political spin doctors, and unscrupulous pollsters? Who will protect the poor from the permanent majority of the ‘haves?’ Who can offset the persuasive power of big money, the often lying and misleading political commercials, the corruption of politics by what New York Times columnist Russell Baker and others have called the ‘legal bribery’ of lobbyist and political action committees seeking favors from government, and the pervasive influence of those who control big media? In a pure democracy, how can those who own the means of communications or dominate the media by lopsided expenditures be prevented from overwhelming the debate, slanting the discussion, and unfairly influencing the public at large? … For most issues, it is unlikely they will take the time to learn all they need to know or deepen their understanding, no matter how inexpensive, accessible, or convenient additional information might be … Nevertheless, stimulated by new and old interactive communications technologies and rising disgust over the way professional politicians, government employees, and elected incumbents function, many members of the public are seeking to gain greater control over the workings of government … The major political institutions – the presidency, the Congress, state and local governments, the parties, the press, the process for nominating and electing political leaders – have to accommodate to this far-reaching new populist political reality. Even the judiciary is not immune from increasing public oversight and popular attention as courtrooms have been opened to the prying lenses of television cameras.”
Biography:Lawrence Grossman wrote the book “The Electronic Republic: Reshaping Democracy in an Information Age” (Penguin, 1995). The former executive at NBC and PBS urged people to realize that digital communications had altered how things can and should be done. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Democracy
Name of publication: The Electronic Republic (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 1: Transforming Democracy – An Overview
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 13-15
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne