One area of vulnerability is the system’s reliance on cryptography – the mathematical locks that keep information safe … Because both the system’s privacy and the security of digital money depend on encryption, a breakthrough in mathematics or computer science that defeats the cryptographic system could be a disaster. The obvious mathematical breakthrough would be the development of an easy way to factor prime numbers. Any person or organization possessing this power could counterfeit money, penetrate any personal, corporate, or governmental file, and possibly even undermine the security of nations, which is why we have to be so careful in designing the system.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” Microsoft CEO Bill Gates writes: ”One area of vulnerability is the system’s reliance on cryptography – the mathematical locks that keep information safe … Because both the system’s privacy and the security of digital money depend on encryption, a breakthrough in mathematics or computer science that defeats the cryptographic system could be a disaster. The obvious mathematical breakthrough would be the development of an easy way to factor prime numbers. Any person or organization possessing this power could counterfeit money, penetrate any personal, corporate, or governmental file, and possibly even undermine the security of nations, which is why we have to be so careful in designing the system. We have to ensure that if any particular encryption technique proves fallible, there is a way to make an immediate transition to an alternative technique. There’s a little bit of inventing still to be done before we have that perfected. It is particularly hard to guarantee security for information you want kept private for a decade or more.”
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: Security/Encryption
Name of publication: The Road Ahead (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 12: Critical Issues
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 265, 266
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne