When e-mail started during the middle and late [19]60s, relatively few people were computer literate. Therefore, it is not surprising that e-mail was dramatically overtaken by fax in the 1980s … But today, with computer ubiquity, the advantages of e-mail are overwhelming, as evidenced by its skyrocketing use. Beyond the digital benefits, e-mail is a more conversational medium. While it is not spoken dialogue, it is much closer to speaking than writing … Over time, people will find different styles of usage … In all likelihood, in the next millennium e-mail (by no means limited to ASCII) will be the dominant interpersonal telecommunications medium, approaching if not overshadowing voice within the next 15 years. We will all be using e-mail, provided we all learn some digital decorum.
Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Being Digital,” Nicholas Negroponte writes: ”The idea of both fax and electronic mail goes back about a hundred years. In an 1863 manuscript, ‘Paris in the 20th Century,’ found and published from the first time in 1994, Jules Verne wrote, ‘Photo-telegraphy allowed any writing, signature or illustration to be sent far away, and any contract to be signed at a distance of [20,000 km]. Every house was wired.’ Western Union’s automatic telegraphy (1883) was hard-wired, point-to-point e-mail … When e-mail started during the middle and late [19]60s, relatively few people were computer literate. Therefore, it is not surprising that e-mail was dramatically overtaken by fax in the 1980s. The reasons were the ease of use, simple delivery of images and graphics, and input from hard copy (including forms). Also, under certain conditions and as of very recently, faxes have legal value with signatures. But today, with computer ubiquity, the advantages of e-mail are overwhelming, as evidenced by its skyrocketing use. Beyond the digital benefits, e-mail is a more conversational medium. While it is not spoken dialogue, it is much closer to speaking than writing … Over time, people will find different styles of usage … In all likelihood, in the next millennium e-mail (by no means limited to ASCII) will be the dominant interpersonal telecommunications medium, approaching if not overshadowing voice within the next 15 years. We will all be using e-mail, provided we all learn some digital decorum.”
Biography:Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: February 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: E-mail
Name of publication: Being Digital (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 15: Good Connections
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 190, 191
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne