No matter what form the PC takes, users will still have to be able to navigate their way through its applications. Think of the way you use your television remote control today to choose what you want to watch. Future systems with more choices will have to do better … You won’t necessarily have to point to make your point. Eventually, we’ll also be able to speak to our televisions, personal computers, or other information appliances. At first we’ll have to keep a limited vocabulary, but eventually our exchanges will become quite conversational.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” Microsoft CEO Bill Gates writes: ”No matter what form the PC takes, users will still have to be able to navigate their way through its applications. Think of the way you use your television remote control today to choose what you want to watch. Future systems with more choices will have to do better. Instead of having to remember which channel number to use to find a program, you will be shown a graphical menu and be able to select what you want by pointing to an easy-to-understand image. You won’t necessarily have to point to make your point. Eventually, we’ll also be able to speak to our televisions, personal computers, or other information appliances. At first we’ll have to keep a limited vocabulary, but eventually our exchanges will become quite conversational. This capability requires powerful hardware and software, because conversation that a human can understand effortlessly is very hard for a computer to interpret. Already voice recognition works fine for a small set of predefined commands, such as ‘Call my sister.’ It’s much more difficult for a computer to decipher an arbitrary sentence, but in the next 10 years this too will become possible.”
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Language/Interface/Software
Name of publication: The Road Ahead (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 4: Applications and Appliances
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 77, 78
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne