One of the worries most often expressed about the highway concerns “information overload.” It is usually voiced by someone who imagines, rather aptly, that the fiber-optic cables of the information highway will be like enormous pipes spewing out large quantities of information. Information overload is not unique to the highway, and it needn’t be a problem. We already cope with astonishing amounts of information by relying on an extensive infrastructure that has evolved to help us be selective – everything from library catalogs to movie reviews to the Yellow Pages to recommendations from friends … The ideal navigation system will be powerful, expose seemingly limitless information, and yet remain very easy to use. Software will offer queries, filters, spatial navigation, hyperlinks, and agents as the primary selection techniques.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” Microsoft CEO Bill Gates writes: ”One of the worries most often expressed about the highway concerns ‘information overload.’ It is usually voiced by someone who imagines, rather aptly, that the fiber-optic cables of the information highway will be like enormous pipes spewing out large quantities of information. Information overload is not unique to the highway, and it needn’t be a problem. We already cope with astonishing amounts of information by relying on an extensive infrastructure that has evolved to help us be selective – everything from library catalogs to movie reviews to the Yellow Pages to recommendations from friends. When people worry about the information-overload problem, ask them to consider how they choose what to read. When we visit a bookstore or a library we don’t worry about reading every volume. We get by without reading everything because their are navigational aids that point to information of interest and help us to find the print material we want. These pointers include the corner newsstand, the Dewey decimal system in libraries, and book reviews in the local newspaper. On the information highway, technology and editorial services will combine to offer a number of ways to help us find information. The ideal navigation system will be powerful, expose seemingly limitless information, and yet remain very easy to use. Software will offer queries, filters, spatial navigation, hyperlinks, and agents as the primary selection techniques … Perhaps the most intriguing approach, and the one that promises to be the easiest of all to use will be to enlist the aid of a personal agent who will represent you on the highway. The agent will actually be software, but it will have a personality you’ll be able to talk to in one form or another. This will be like delegating an assistant to look at the inventory for you.”
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Information Overload
Name of publication: The Road Ahead (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 4: Applications and Appliances
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 78, 79
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne