To the telecomputerized citizens of the next century, today’s public opinion polling will seem as crude, primitive, and limited as the first Gallup polls in the 1930s seem to us now. Sample groups of citizens will be empaneled to represent the whole or specific parts of the population. These focus groups will be surveyed to express their choices in some depth and dimension, and then monitored to reflect any changes in their views. Electronic juries will be asked to render judgments on individual public questions. Professional polling companies and political consultants already do a good deal of this work. We shall see more of it in the future, carried out in more structured and sophisticated ways.
Predictor: Grossman, Lawrence K.
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Electronic Republic: Reshaping Democracy in the Information Age,” Lawrence Grossman, former president of NBC News and PBS, writes:”To the telecomputerized citizens of the next century, today’s public opinion polling will seem as crude, primitive, and limited as the first Gallup polls in the 1930s seem to us now. Sample groups of citizens will be empaneled to represent the whole or specific parts of the population. These focus groups will be surveyed to express their choices in some depth and dimension, and then monitored to reflect any changes in their views. Electronic juries will be asked to render judgments on individual public questions. Professional polling companies and political consultants already do a good deal of this work. We shall see more it in the future, carried out in more structured and sophisticated ways.”
Biography:Lawrence Grossman wrote the book “The Electronic Republic: Reshaping Democracy in an Information Age” (Penguin, 1995). The former executive at NBC and PBS urged people to realize that digital communications had altered how things can and should be done. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: The Electronic Republic (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 7: The Shape of the Electronic Republic: The Citizens, the Congress, the Presidency, and the Judiciary
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 150
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne