The information highway will allow the transfer of intellectual property rights from one person to another at the speed of light. Almost all the music, writing, or other intellectual properties stored on disks or in book sits unused most of the time. When youÕre not consuming your particular copy of “Thriller” or “Bonfire of the Vanities,” most likely no one else is, either. Publishers count on this. If the average buyer lent his or her albums and book frequently, fewer would be sold and prices would be higher. If we assume that an album is in use, say, 0.1 percent of the time, “light-speed” lending might cut the number of copies sold by a factor of 1,000. Lending will probably be restricted so users will only be allowed to lend a copy out perhaps up to 10 times a year.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” Microsoft CEO Bill Gates writes: ÒThe transferability of information will be another big pricing issue. The information highway will allow the transfer of intellectual property rights from one person to another at the speed of light. Almost all the music, writing, or other intellectual properties stored on disks or in book sits unused most of the time. When youÕre not consuming your particular copy of Thriller or Bonfire of the Vanities, most likely no one else is, either. Publishers count on this. If the average buyer lent his or her albums and book frequently, fewer would be sold and prices would be higher. If we assume that an album is in use, say, 0.1 percent of the time, Ôlight-speedÕ lending might cut the number of copies sold by a factor of 1,000. Lending will probably be restricted so users will only be allowed to lend a copy out perhaps up to 10 times a year.Ó
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Copyright/Intellectual Property/Plagiarism
Name of publication: The Road Ahead (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Chapter 8: Friction-Free Capitalism
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 177, 178
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne