The prediction, in brief:

The Internet culture supports open communication. People answer questions, make suggestions, and freely discuss a myriad of topics for the satisfaction of participation and perhaps some enhancement to their reputation – the payoffs are not explicit … Will increased commercialization end openness? Must it? Can we find policies that balance openness and marketplace efficiency? Social predictions are difficult at best, and the global nature of the Internet makes them even more difficult. I understand that volunteerism and information exchange are difficult to sustain, and commercial enterprises are very effective. The capitalization and blazing growth of the personal computer industry would have been impossible by any other means. But, something has also been lost in the Microsofting of personal computing.

Predictor: Press, Larry

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Communications of the ACM [Association for Computing Machinery] about the commercialization of the Internet, Larry Press, a professor of computer-information systems at California State University, Dominguez Hills, writes:”The Internet culture supports open communication. People answer questions, make suggestions, and freely discuss a myriad of topics for the satisfaction of participation and perhaps some enhancement to their reputation – the payoffs are not explicit … Will increased commercialization end openness? Must it? Can we find policies that balance openness and marketplace efficiency? Social predictions are difficult at best, and the global nature of the Internet makes them even more difficult. I understand that volunteerism and information exchange are difficult to sustain, and commercial enterprises are very effective. The capitalization and blazing growth of the personal computer industry would have been impossible by any other means. But, something has also been lost in the Microsofting of personal computing.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: E-commerce

Name of publication: Business and Industry, Communications of the ACM

Title, headline, chapter name: Commercialization of the Internet

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/comm.htm

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney