Long-time users of The Internet express anxiety over what might happen as commercial interests become increasingly developed: Will they be pushed aside? Will they lose their access? Will it become too costly for them to use the Net? Besides the culture of the Internet, marketers face a number of hurdles that must be overcome if the Internet is to become the backbone of a commercially viable Information Superhighway.
Predictor: Hoffman, Donna L.
Prediction, in context:Donna Hoffman and Thomas Novak of Vanderbilt University’s Owen Graduate School of Management say the Internet’s “culture stands as a barrier to commercialization” in a 1994 article for The Owen Manager. They continue: ”Long-time users of The Internet express anxiety over what might happen as commercial interests become increasingly developed: Will they be pushed aside? Will they lose their access? Will it become too costly for them to use the Net? Besides the culture of the Internet, marketers face a number of hurdles that must be overcome if the Internet is to become the backbone of a commercially viable Information Superhighway. These include: ”- Security. The Internet is currently not sufficiently secure … What sort of legal tender should the Internet use? Should we use credit cards or some kind of digital cash? ”- Privacy. Direct netmail, to cite one specific example, is considered an invasion of privacy deserving of punishment – offenders get ‘flamed’ with torrents of venomous e-mail. This can obviously hamper your marketing efforts. ”- Pricing. The issue is both subtle and complex. Current commerical online services use a pay-as-you-go pricing system and/or are based on flat usage fees. The Internet is strictly flat-fee and unbelievably inexpensive. Once you are connected, there are no additional fees besides the connection fee. This aspect of Internet culture will be enormously difficult to overcome; online services ignore this at their peril … ”- Global Marketing. The Internet requires ‘acting locally but thinking globally,’ as it is truly international in scope and crosses cultural and language boundaries. We can only imagine the tremendously difficult and complex issues – legal, political and ethical – that will arise as we attempt to market services and information globally. ”- Advertising. The Internet will likely require a completely different advertising effectiveness model … ”- Measuring Demand. Marketers are not very good at measuring demand for truly new products and services. How to do this for the new Information Superhighway, whatever its form, is the billion-dollar question as we approach the new millennium.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Owen Graduate School of Management Magazine: The Owen Manage
Title, headline, chapter name: Commercializing the Information Superhighway: Are We in for a Smooth Ride?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://elab.vanderbilt.edu/research/papers/html/manuscripts/smooth.ride.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Krout, Kevin M.