The prediction, in brief:

The gap between personal and mass media … is being filled by such technologies as community-produced cable television, electronically filtered news, computer discussion groups, and, I would argue, community networks.

Predictor: Cisler, Steve

Prediction, in context:

In a report on community networks written in 1993 and published on the Web site of Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility, Steve Cisler writes:”Many writers, online enthusiasts, and researchers have commented on the promise of using the new communications technologies to reinforce communities, to invigorate the democratic process, and to redefine parts of society. Ithiel de Sola Pool’s writings are particularly useful, and though he died in 1984, his works do not seem dated or out of sync with the events we are experiencing in the 1990’s. In ‘Forecasting the Telephone,’ Pool describes how farmers in rural areas banded together to form telephone cooperatives, sometimes stringing wire on fence posts andeven using barbed wire as a transport medium. He also describes an early use of the party line by farmers that seems to offer some advantages over the single household system that most of us use: At a specific time in the evening, after chores were done, the farmers would gather online, and one who subscribed to a newspaper or magazine, would read to the others, some of whom could not read at all. In ‘Technologies Without Boundaries,’ Pool discusses a number of profound changes [brought about by the phone] including: ‘The mass media revolution is being reversed; instead of identical messages being disseminated to millions of people, electronic technology permits the adaptation of electronic messages to the specialized or unique needs of individuals.’ The gap between personal and mass media … is being filled by such technologies as community-produced cable television, electronically filtered news, computer discussion groups, and, I would argue, community networks.”

Biography:

Steve Cisler was the chief library scientist at the Apple Corporate Library and was active in the early Internet community as a writer/activist. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1991

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility Web site

Title, headline, chapter name: Community Computer Networks: Building Electronic Greenbelts

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
www.cpsr.org/program/community-nets/building_electronic_greenbelts.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney