Commercial enterprises have the resources for well-supported trials of systems that can provide a wide range of services … With interest by commercial firms in these networks, what effects will under-funded grass roots efforts have over the next 10 years? If Apple, or U S West, or Time-Warner, or America Online comes to your town, will there be a place for a strong voice and some control by local organizations rather than the ‘invisible hand’ of market forces? If no group has already started a community network, the commercial firms will be able to write more of the ground rules and grow a system designed primarily to achieve their business goals.
Predictor: Cisler, Steve
Prediction, in context:In a report on community networks written in 1993 and published on the Web site of Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility, Steve Cisler writes: ”With many sectors in education, society, business, and government pushing for broadband connections and communications pipes, the users who are teething on our text-based systems will demand and eventually receive information systems that can deliver reliable and secure transactional information, both sound and full-motion digital video, and high-resolution images for use in purchasing goods, making medical diagnoses, and for pure entertainment. It is unclear how the community networks of today, which have not found stable funding models yet, will meet the challenge to provide high-end technology. Commercial enterprises have the resources for well-supported trials of systems that can provide a wide range of services they hope will bring people online and into the stores to buy new equipment to handle the sophisticated graphic interfaces. With interest by commercial firms in these networks, what effects will under-funded grass roots efforts have over the next 10 years? If Apple, or US West, or Time-Warner, or America Online comes to your town, will there be a place for a strong voice and some control by local organizations rather than the ‘invisible hand’ of market forces? If no group has already started a community network, the commercial firms will be able to write more of the ground rules and grow a system designed primarily to achieve their business goals. This is less likely to occur if they offer services in an area where there is a healthy network with a broad range of volunteers and community expertise. Any system, commercial or otherwise, must meet the needs of many different users. If a commercial system can do that better, it will prevail … As new uses emerge, the network will grow and expand in functionality. If the network is viewed (or ignored) as the domain of a few groups of users or if the discussion sections are dominated by a handful of verbose contributors, broad public support is unlikely.”
Biography:Steve Cisler was the chief library scientist at the Apple Corporate Library and was active in the early Internet community as a writer/activist. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1991
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility Web site
Title, headline, chapter name: Community Computer Networks: Building Electronic Greenbelts
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
www.cpsr.org/program/community-nets/building_electronic_greenbelts.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney