The best use of optical computing would be in the design of a switching system in order to effectively utilize fiber-optic links. This will occur perhaps a decade before an optical computer is developed.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1992 article for The Futurist, an unknown author writes about C. Gordon Bell, at the time the chief scientist at Stardent Computer. The article says: ”New ways of computing, such as optical and molecular systems to replace semiconductors, are still the stuff of future dreams, but gains made in the laboratories of today will blossom into amazing computer applications beyond the year 2000, says computer expert C. Gordon Bell, chief scientist at Stardent Computer of Concord, Mass. To predict future technological applications, one must look at the work going on in laboratories today, ‘since it takes roughly a decade for a technology to move from the laboratory to common use,’ Bell points out in his new book ‘High-Tech Ventures.’ In optical computing, AT&T has conducted impressive demonstrations of photons performing logical operations, says Bell, but the phenomenon ‘is not yet operating as a system component in a research laboratory … The best use of optical computing would be in the design of a switching system in order to effectively utilize fiber-optic links. This will occur perhaps a decade before an optical computer is developed.’ As for molecular computing, Bell points out that such work ‘is still in a preresearch proposal phase.'”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: The Futurist
Title, headline, chapter name: Computers in the 21st Century
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Vol. 26, Issue 2, Page 51 ISSN: 00163317
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney