Although there are valid historical reasons that the entertainment- and information (i.e., Internet)-based visions have not yet been harmonized … It is in the national interest to integrate these visions into a more comprehensive model – one that will support diverse objectives and help ensure national well-being on many fronts … The infrastructure, deployment, and services of the NII can and should all be highly synergistic … It is natural to consider an architecture that can, indeed, support interoperability among these networks … New devices for telephony, for entertainment, and for information access should all interwork … It will be necessary to find specific points at which the convergence can be encouraged, to take account of the real economic issues, especially in the entertainment sector, and to take an active role in defining and fostering the overarching vision.
Predictor: National Research Council
Prediction, in context:In 1994, the NRENaissance Committee, appointed by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council, produced a special report titled “Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond.” Among the committee members were Internet pioneers Leonard Kleinrock, David Clark, David Farber, Lawrence Landweber and Robert Kahn. The committee’s goal was to “study issues raised by the shift to a larger, more truly national networking capability.” Among its statements, it says: ”Although there are valid historical reasons that the entertainment- and information (i.e., Internet)-based visions have not yet been harmonized, the committee believes it is in the national interest to integrate these visions into a more comprehensive model – one that will support diverse objectives and help ensure national well-being on many fronts. The Internet, the commercial networks, the drive by the ETC [entertainment, telephone and cable TV] complex, the consumer marketplace, and the needs of the research, education and library communities are all interrelated; the infrastructure, deployment, and services of the NII can and should all be highly synergistic … The distinction among the infrastructure needs of these various services is rapidly disappearing; thus it is natural to consider an architecture that can, indeed, support interoperability among these networks … today the television and the computer cannot interact or exchange any sort of data. Both have displays, and both attempt to provide visual information to the user, but there is no interplay between them. This lack of compatibility is an issue in terms of cost to the consumer, and in loss of flexibility to take advantage of new services. As we bring into the home a next generation of networked devices, this problem will become more generally relevant: new devices for telephony, for entertainment, and for information access should all interwork … It will be necessary to find specific points at which the convergence can be encouraged, to take account of the real economic issues, especially in the entertainment sector, and to take an active role in defining and fostering the overarching vision.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Open Access
Name of publication: Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: Converging the Visions of the Future
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://stills.nap.edu/html/rtif/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney