Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

“There is no piece of copyrighted work small enough that [publishers] are uninterested in charging for its use, and no use private enough that they aren’t willing to track it down and charge for it.” Publishers say these changes are needed because works in digital format are so easily copied that the potential for lost revenue is high. They also worry that it is difficult for users to judge the authenticity of material which, in digital form, can be easily reproduced and altered.

Predictor: Samuelson, Pamela

Prediction, in context:

The 1997 book “Computers, Ethics, and Society,” edited by M. David Ermann, Mary B. Williams and Michele S. Shauf, carries a reprint of a 1995 Wall Street Journal article titled “Copyright Battles on the Web: From Elvis to Wittgenstein” by Ross Kerber. Kerber discusses where to draw the line between fair use and copyright infringement. He writes: ”A Clinton administration working group … backed defining digital transmission as a form of publication and supported electronic coding of all copyrighted material that will notify publishers when their material is copied. It also favored criminal penalties for making copies with a retail value of $5,000 or more, which would probably include nonprofit postings on the Internet. The proposals worry civil libertarians and computer professionals. The Association for Computing Machinery, a trade group, says the rules are written so narrowly they could impede scientists from using the Internet to browse through research materials. Pamela Samuelson, a visiting professor at Cornell Law School, argues that they would virtually eliminate the ‘fair use’ provisions of current copyright law. In the view of the publishers, Prof. Samuelson complains, ‘there is no piece of copyrighted work small enough that they are uninterested in charging for its use, and no use private enough that they aren’t willing to track it down and charge for it.’ Publishers say these changes are needed because works in digital format are so easily copied that the potential for lost revenue is high. They also worry that it is difficult for users to judge the authenticity of material which, in digital form, can be easily reproduced and altered.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Copyright/Intellectual Property/Plagiarism

Name of publication: Computers, Ethics, and Society (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: Copyright Battles on the Web: From Elvis to Wittgenstein

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 219, 220

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne