The cost of long-haul communication for the several million Americans who use the Internet is on the order of a few dollars per person per year. However, the bigger cost barrier lies in the access circuits, rather than in the long-haul portions of the network.
Predictor: National Research Council
Prediction, in context:In 1994, the NRENaissance Committee, appointed by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council, produced a special report titled “Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond.” Among the committee members were Internet pioneers Leonard Kleinrock, David Clark, David Farber, Lawrence Landweber and Robert Kahn. The committee’s goal was to “study issues raised by the shift to a larger, more truly national networking capability.” Among its statements about the blossoming of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) is this: ”The massive programs of infrastructure development that are beginning to take shape, motivated in part by the possibility of interactive television and video on demand, could bring the benefits of Internet or Internet-like services to a much larger community. The achievement of these benefits is not guaranteed, given that many choices must be made by multiple parties concerning architecture and deployment … The cost of long-haul communication for the several million Americans who use the Internet is on the order of a few dollars per person per year. However, the bigger cost barrier lies in the access circuits, rather than in the long-haul portions of the network.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: Cost of Network Infrastructure
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://stills.nap.edu/html/rtif/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney