If the U.S. government continues to control DES-strength encryption manufactured in the U.S., the following results may come to pass: Foreign competitors of U.S. encryption companies will likely gain control of the global market for encryption products. U.S. companies will lose a significant share in the global market for encryption products … DES-strength encryption will continue to proliferate to foreign destinations, either through foreign companies or through the ever-growing Internet. The effort of current U.S. export policy to inhibit this by restricting exports on DES-based technology is unlikely to succeed. If, indeed, U.S. companies get displaced in the international encryption marketplace, U.S. national security will also be threatened by a weakened domestic encryption (and computer) industry.
Predictor: Hoffman, Lance
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 research article on cryptography policy, authors Lance Hoffman, Anne Huybrechts, Ali Faraz and Steven Heckler write: ”If the U.S. government continues to control DES-strength encryption manufactured in the U.S., the following results may come to pass: Foreign competitors of U.S. encryption companies will likely gain control of the global market for encryption products. U.S. companies will lose a significant share in the global market for encryption products. They are likely to lose sales opportunities as they compete in the electronic security market against products based on DES and RSA with their own weaker versions. DES-strength encryption will continue to proliferate to foreign destinations, either through foreign companies or through the ever-growing Internet. The effort of current U.S. export policy to inhibit this by restricting exports on DES-based technology is unlikely to succeed. If, indeed, U.S. companies get displaced in the international encryption marketplace, U.S. national security will also be threatened by a weakened domestic encryption (and computer) industry.”
Biography:Lance Hoffman, a professor at George Washington University, was a security expert and the author of the 1994 National Science Foundation paper “Civilizing Cyberspace: Priority Policy Issues in a National Information Infrastructure” in addition to many other research pieces in the 1990s. He wrote the book “Rogue Programs: Viruses, Worms and Trojan Horses” (Van Nostrand Rheinhold, 1990). (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: Security/Encryption
Name of publication: Communications of the ACM
Title, headline, chapter name: Cryptography Policy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web4.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/833/751/34311839w4/purl=rc2_EAIM_1_Cryptography+Policy___09/1994______________________________________________________&dyn=sig!2?sw_aep=ncliveec
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Johnson, Kathleen