Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

DES-based products for file and data encryption will probably not be removed from the munitions list in the near future.

Predictor: Hoffman, Lance

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 research article on cryptography policy, authors Lance Hoffman, Anne Huybrechts, Ali Faraz and Steven Heckler write: ”It appears unlikely that U.S. export laws will become as relaxed as those in many other countries. DES-based products for file and data encryption will probably not be removed from the munitions list in the near future.”

Biography:

Lance Hoffman, a professor at George Washington University, was a security expert and the author of the 1994 National Science Foundation paper “Civilizing Cyberspace: Priority Policy Issues in a National Information Infrastructure” in addition to many other research pieces in the 1990s. He wrote the book “Rogue Programs: Viruses, Worms and Trojan Horses” (Van Nostrand Rheinhold, 1990). (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: Security/Encryption

Name of publication: Communications of the ACM

Title, headline, chapter name: Cryptography Policy

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web4.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/833/751/34311839w4/purl=rc2_EAIM_1_Cryptography+Policy___09/1994______________________________________________________&dyn=sig!2?sw_aep=ncliveec

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Johnson, Kathleen