France’s patriarchs are outraged. Europeans’ love affair with Europe is threatened by this cultural flirtation with the Americans, and they are determined to put a stop to it … The hype over interactive television, video-on-demand, and music delivered over the Internet, only strengthens the French resolve. If they do not take a stand now, they reckon, it will soon be too late. But, on the contrary, it’s too late already for the sorts of measures the French have in mind. In an age of interactive media, cultural quotas will prove at least as self-defeating – and if anything, useless – as the Maginot Line, France’s last great attempt to wall itself off from invaders.
Predictor: Andrews, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 essay for Wired magazine, John Andrews, The Economist’s correspondent in Brussels, looks at the efforts of the French government to stifle the global expansion of American culture. Andrews writes: ”The films in Montparnasse and on the Champs Elyses are American – ‘Pulp Fiction,’ ‘Forrest Gump,’ ‘Mrs. Doubtfire’ – and the hamburgers are McDonald’s. Turn to television and ‘Magnum’ springs to action, the Selleck mustache not quite in time with the French-dubbed soundtrack … France’s patriarchs are outraged. Europeans’ love affair with Europe is threatened by this cultural flirtation with the Americans, and they are determined to put a stop to it – single-handedly if necessary, but with the full weight of the European Union behind them if possible. France’s preferred weapon against the cultural invaders of Paramount, CNN, and MTV is quotas. Anything non-European must be strictly rationed. The majority of what appears on television and radio must be European – preferably, French. As for cinema, the French already have a levy on the ticket price, and plow the money straight back into French movie productions. Slowly, but so far steadily, the French are maneuvering the European Commission into tightening restrictions on imports of American – or as they put it, non-European (but nobody is in any doubt as to whom the proposed laws are aimed at) – films, television shows, and music … The hype over interactive television, video-on-demand, and music delivered over the Internet, only strengthens the French resolve. If they do not take a stand now, they reckon, it will soon be too late. But, on the contrary, it’s too late already for the sorts of measures the French have in mind. In an age of interactive media, cultural quotas will prove at least as self-defeating – and if anything, useless – as the Maginot Line, France’s last great attempt to wall itself off from invaders. This ‘impenetrable’ wall of fortifications was designed after World War I to prevent the Germans from ever again marching across French soil. What its designers forgot, however, was that the new technology of tanks and airplanes rendered fixed fortifications obsolete. Invaders simply went around the forts at high speed. The Maginot Line lasted only a few weeks at the opening of World War II, and, with its false security punctured, France collapsed. New technology also mocks the quotas the French use to try to defend themselves against American firms. In sober moments, some of them would admit this is true. But the temptation for the French – and even for many other Europeans – to do something, anything, about the Americans now seems too strong to resist. Electronic communication has bred new familiarity, and familiarity is breeding contempt.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Culture Wars: Francois Mitterrand has Declared War on Mickey, Madonna, and All-American Culture. Bad News, Francois: Mickey’s Winning
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.05/culture_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney